Mississippi Gulf Coast Market ReportThe Fed changed
direction.
On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. Mortgage rates crossed 7 percent within eight days, the first time above that line since January 2025. Last month I wrote that waiting for rates to fall was a gamble. I want to be straight with you about how that turned out, and what it changes for anyone buying or selling here this fall.
Freddie Mac PMMS
Week ending Sep 24, 2026 Above 7% since Jan 2025
A steady climb, then a jump
August was flat as a board, four weeks inside four basis points. September was the opposite. The big move came in the week ending September 17, the first reading published after the Fed’s decision the day before.
Bars scaled 6.0 to 7.1 percent. For scale: the same average closed August at 6.66% and sat at 6.30% a year ago. The 15-year fixed finished September at 6.42%.
The first rate hike in three years
On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12 to 0 to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point, to a target range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. It was the first increase since 2023, and it reversed the direction the Fed had been moving since late 2025. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation was too high and had been for too long, and described the move as removing a dose of accommodation.
The part that matters more than the hike itself is what came with it. The committee’s own projections now show most members expecting one more increase before the end of 2026, no change through 2027, and cuts only arriving in 2028. The next meeting is October 27 and 28.
For most of this year the question was when rates would fall. That is no longer the question.
One clarification worth making, because it causes a lot of confusion. The Fed’s rate and your mortgage rate are not the same thing. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury and the mortgage bond market, which is why they can move before a Fed meeting, after one, or against one. In September they happened to move together, and sharply.
Last month’s advice, and how it aged
In the August report I wrote that buyers who spent the month waiting for rates to drop got nothing for the wait, and that waiting should be a decision rather than a default. I also wrote that if rates fell, the seller concessions available then would tighten quickly.
Rates did not fall. They went up by more than a third of a percent in four weeks. Anyone who sat out August and is shopping now is looking at a meaningfully higher payment on the same house.
I am not telling you this to take a victory lap, because I had no idea the Fed was going to hike. Nobody did with any certainty. The point is narrower and more useful: waiting for a rate is a bet, and bets go both ways. What you can actually control is the price you negotiate, the concessions you ask for, and whether the payment works on the day you sign.
What the move costs in real money
Take a $300,000 purchase with 20 percent down, so a $240,000 loan. That is right in the middle of what sells around here.
| Rate | Monthly principal and interest | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| 6.66% (end of August) | $1,542 | Baseline |
| 7.03% (end of September) | $1,602 | About $59 more per month, roughly $711 a year, and around $21,000 across a full 30-year term |
Fifty-nine dollars a month is not a catastrophe, and I do not want to dramatize it. But it is real, it compounds, and it is the difference between qualifying and not qualifying for some buyers. It also runs in the opposite direction from the concessions sellers are currently offering, which is the whole opportunity this fall.
Where the coast stands now
Diamondhead, Bay St. Louis, Waveland
Some segments at 124
Hancock County, trailing month
September 16, 2026
Hancock County covers Diamondhead, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Kiln and Pearlington, blending a wide range of property types and price points. Harrison County including Pass Christian and Gulfport, and St. Tammany Parish including Slidell, are tracked separately below. Figures current as of early October 2026.
Prices held. Patience did not.
Here is the thing I find most reassuring in this month’s data, and I say that as someone who sells houses here.
Rates went up by more than a third of a percent, and local prices did not move. Hancock County median list prices are sitting in the $325,000 to $330,000 range, essentially where they were a month ago. Sales volume held at 51 to 53 a month. Nothing broke.
What stretched is time. Homes are now taking around 102 days to sell countywide, with some segments out past 120, compared with about 94 days last month and roughly 80 back in January. That is the pressure valve. When money gets more expensive here, the market absorbs it through patience rather than through price.
Supply is the reason. There is only so much of this coast, and almost none of it is being made.
Town by town
| Market | Where prices sit | Time on market | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondhead, MS | All-types median in the $265,000 to $282,000 range. Detached single-family typically $300,000 to $500,000. Canal-front with dock well above | ~102 days countywide | The elevation advantage matters more as rates rise. Lower insurance carrying cost offsets a higher payment, and buyers are doing that math |
| Bay St. Louis, MS | Trailing 12-month median around $345,000, list medians closer to $383,000 to $399,000 | ~102 to 124 days | The gap between asking and selling is now the widest of the four. Best negotiating room on this coast for a patient buyer |
| Pass Christian, MS | Median sale $355,000 to $395,000. Average nearer $454,000. Highest median list in Harrison County | ~69 days historically | Still the tightest market here. Scarcity protects it from rate pressure better than anywhere else on the coast |
| Slidell, LA | $180,000 to $265,000 depending on source and sub-area. Condos near $99,500 | 86 to 91 days | Lower price points absorb a rate increase more easily in absolute dollars. Combined with Louisiana’s homestead exemption, the most forgiving math of the four |
Compiled from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Federal Reserve FOMC releases, and public market data including Redfin, Zillow, Homes.com and Bankrate, current as of October 7, 2026. Ranges rather than single figures, because different sources measure different things. On a coast this size a single unusual closing can move a town’s monthly median, so treat single-month movements with caution. For a specific address, comparable sales are the only number that matters.
Two different sets of instructions
- Ask for a seller-paid rate buydown. This is the single most valuable thing to negotiate right now. On a home sitting past 100 days, many sellers will fund one, and it does more for your payment than an equivalent price cut.
- Get re-approved before you shop. If your pre-approval was written in July or August it was built on a rate that no longer exists. Find out what you actually qualify for now, not what you qualified for then.
- Target the long-sitting listings. With county averages above 100 days, there is a real population of sellers who have adjusted their expectations. That is where the leverage lives.
- Quote insurance before contingencies expire. Three policies here: homeowners, separate wind and hail, and flood. Two homes at the same price can differ by hundreds a month. On a tighter payment budget this matters more than ever.
- Your buyer pool got smaller in September. Not gone, smaller. Price for the buyers who exist today rather than the ones who were shopping in the spring.
- Offer the buydown before you cut the price. Funding a rate buydown often costs less than a price reduction and does more to make your home affordable to a hesitant buyer.
- Over 100 days is now normal here. Do not panic at day 60. Do take it seriously if you are past 100 and have had few showings, because that is a pricing signal rather than a market signal.
- Remove the doubt in advance. That is what my Certified Listing Program is for: a pre-listing inspection so problems surface on your terms, plus a buyer home warranty at closing.
What to watch between now and the new year
The next Fed meeting is October 27 and 28. The committee’s September projections pointed to one more increase before year end, so that meeting and the December one are the two to watch. I would not plan around a cut arriving soon, because the Fed’s own members are not projecting one until 2028.
Locally, watch inventory. Listing activity on this coast usually thins after hurricane season, and we are entering that stretch now. If supply drops while sales volume holds near 51 to 53 a month, the negotiating room buyers have right now narrows regardless of what rates do. That is the more actionable signal for anyone shopping here this fall.
And the long view has not changed. Prices on this coast remain a fraction of comparable coastal markets in Florida and the Carolinas, the region keeps drawing retirees and second home buyers from New Orleans and beyond, and the supply of real waterfront is finite. Rate cycles come and go. That does not.
Frequently asked
Did the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September 2026?
Yes. On September 16, 2026 the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. It was the first increase since 2023, reversing the cuts made in late 2025. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had been too high for too long. The committee's own projections point to one more hike before the end of 2026, with the next meeting scheduled for October 27 and 28.
What are mortgage rates on the Mississippi Gulf Coast right now?
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.03 percent for the week ending September 24, 2026, the first reading above 7 percent since January 2025. The month climbed steadily: roughly 6.71 percent in the first week, 6.76, then 6.95 after the Fed's September 16 hike, then 7.03. A year earlier the same average was 6.30 percent. Rates quoted by individual lenders vary and some surveys that include a wider mix of loan types have shown higher figures.
How much did the September rate increase change a monthly payment?
On a $240,000 loan, which is roughly a $300,000 purchase with 20 percent down, the move from 6.66 percent at the end of August to 7.03 percent in late September raised the principal and interest payment by about $59 a month. That is roughly $711 a year, or around $21,000 across a full 30-year term. The change is modest month to month and significant over the life of the loan.
Is it still a buyer's market on the Mississippi Gulf Coast?
Yes, and in some ways more so. Hancock County homes are now taking roughly 102 to 124 days to sell depending on the segment, up from about 94 days a month ago and about 80 days in January. Median list prices are holding near $325,000 to $330,000 with roughly 51 to 53 sales a month. Higher rates have thinned the buyer pool further, which means sellers who need to move are more willing to negotiate on price, closing costs and rate buydowns than at any point this year.
Should I buy now or wait for rates to come down?
Nobody can promise which way rates go, but the Fed's own September projections point to one more increase in 2026 rather than a cut, with no change expected in 2027. Anyone who waited through August hoping for relief has since watched the 30-year average climb from 6.66 percent to above 7 percent. The practical approach is to buy a payment you can afford today, negotiate hard for seller-paid closing costs and a rate buydown while the market is slow, and refinance later if rates do fall.
What is a seller-paid rate buydown and should I ask for one?
It is an arrangement where the seller pays money at closing to reduce your interest rate, either for the first years of the loan or permanently. In a market where homes are sitting over 100 days, many sellers will agree to it, and in a rising-rate environment it often does more for your monthly payment than an equivalent reduction in purchase price. It is worth asking about on any home that has been listed a while. Your lender can run the numbers both ways before you make an offer.
Are Gulf Coast home prices going to fall because of higher rates?
There is no sign of that so far on this coast. Median list prices have held in the $325,000 to $330,000 range through the rate increase, and sales volume has stayed steady around 51 to 53 a month. What higher rates have changed is how long homes take to sell rather than what they sell for. Local supply is limited, particularly for waterfront and higher-elevation property, which tends to support prices even when demand softens.
Rates are national. Your house is not.
Everything above is context. What your specific home is worth, or what you should offer on one, comes down to local comparable sales and the particular circumstances of that seller. I am happy to pull those for you, and there is no obligation attached to asking.
Betsy Williams, Broker-Owner, Meridian Realtors · Licensed in Mississippi and Louisiana · 504-458-9498 · betsydwilliams@yahoo.com